The fluctuations in international steel and raw material prices during the third week of December 2025 are mainly driven by three core factors: supply - demand mismatch, expectations of trade policies, and geopolitical logistics costs. Prices of different steel products have shown distinct trends, which directly affect the order pricing and profit margins of foreign - trade steel enterprises.
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Australian 62% Iron Ore (CFR Price): USD 106 per ton, up USD 2 week - on - week
- Core Logic for Price Increase: On one hand, some steel mills in China have released their inventory - replenishment demand to meet year - end orders, leading to a rebound in iron ore procurement volume. On the other hand, the operational efficiency of ports in the Pilbara region of Australia temporarily declined due to hurricane warnings, and port inventories dropped to a three - month low, which further supported the iron ore price.
- Impact on Foreign Trade: As a core raw material for steel production, the rising price of iron ore will directly push up the production cost of carbon steel. For export enterprises like Wuxi Laiyang Iron and Steel, if the order pricing does not include a clause linking to the fluctuation of raw material prices, their profit margins will be squeezed. Conversely, they can transfer cost pressures by adding a "iron ore price - linked price adjustment" clause to the contracts.
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Chinese Billets (FOB Price): USD 435 per ton, up USD 3 week - on - week
- Core Logic for Price Increase: Many regions in China have introduced staggered winter production policies, resulting in a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and a tightening of billet supply. Coupled with the upcoming implementation of the 2026 steel export license management policy, there is an expectation of "rush exports" in the market, which has boosted the enthusiasm of traders for stock - up. These factors have jointly driven the price up.
- Impact on Foreign Trade: Billets are upstream raw materials for long steel products (such as angle steel and deformed steel bars). Their price increase will directly drive up the quoted prices of exported long steel products. For angle steel orders to Thailand, Laiyang Iron and Steel can seize the short - term price - rising window to lock in profits. Meanwhile, it needs to be vigilant against fluctuations in order volume caused by the tightening of export quotas after the policy is implemented.
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Turkish Rebar (FOB Price): USD 555 - 570 per ton, down USD 8 week - on - week
- Core Logic for Price Decrease: Firstly, the demand for the construction industry in the European Union is weak. As the main export destination for Turkish rebar, the EU's order volume decreased by 12% week - on - week. Secondly, regional competition has intensified. Russian low - priced rebar has seized the market share in the Middle East, forcing Turkish steel mills to cut prices for promotion to maintain shipment volume.
- Impact on Foreign Trade: The price reduction of Turkish rebar has exerted a certain impact on the export of Chinese similar products, especially in overlapping markets such as the Middle East and North Africa. However, Chinese rebar still has room for competition relying on the advantages of cost - effectiveness and a complete range of product specifications and models. Enterprises can focus on promoting high - value - added rebar, such as earthquake - resistant rebar and corrosion - resistant rebar, to avoid the track of low - price competition.
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Russian Hot - Rolled Coil (FOB Price): USD 425 - 435 per ton, unchanged week - on - week
- Core Logic for Stable Price: The export channels of Russian hot - rolled coil have tended to be fixed, mainly flowing to Central Asia, North Africa and some Southeast Asian countries. In addition, energy costs (natural gas and electricity) are relatively stable, supporting steel mills to maintain firm quoted prices. At the same time, the demand from downstream manufacturing industries is stable, and the supply and demand are basically balanced, so there is no motivation for significant price fluctuations.
- Impact on Foreign Trade: The stable price of Russian hot - rolled coil has a limited diversion effect on China's hot - rolled coil exports. For the hot - rolled coil orders from Laiyang Iron and Steel to Vietnam, the enterprise can highlight the advantages of product quality certification (such as ASEAN standard certification) and customized processing services to consolidate the customer base in Vietnam's manufacturing industry.
Data from the World Steel Association shows that the global crude steel output reached 143.3 million tons in October 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. Among them, the output of traditional steel - producing countries such as China, Japan and South Korea has declined, mainly due to weak domestic demand and environmental protection - related production restrictions. Only India has maintained positive growth, benefiting from the rapid expansion of its local infrastructure and manufacturing industries.
This output trend reflects the growing intensification of global steel supply - demand differentiation: demand in traditional markets is shrinking, while demand in emerging markets (such as India and Southeast Asia) remains resilient. Foreign - trade steel enterprises need to adjust their market layout in a targeted manner and give priority to focusing on high - growth regions.
