China’s Carbon Steel Exports Surge Sharply, Billet Export Volume Jumps Significantly

I. Export Data: Skyrocketing Steel Billet Exports and Month-on-Month Recovery of Finished Steel

1. Steel billet (carbon steel semi-finished product, core highlight)

   In March, steel billet exports reached 1.5281 million tons, up 65.99% month-on-month and 48.37% year-on-year, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years.

   The cumulative export volume from January to March stood at 3.3018 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.99%, presenting an explosive growth and becoming the core driving force of overall steel exports.
2. Finished steel products (including carbon steel hot rolled / cold rolled coils, profiles, etc.)

   China’s finished steel exports totaled 9.135 million tons in March, rising 16.6% month-on-month; the year-on-year decline narrowed obviously with a noticeable recovery in spot shipments.

   The average export price was competitive globally, laying a solid foundation for export expansion.
3. Product differentiation within carbon steel sector

• Steel billet: explosive year-on-year growth
• Carbon steel profiles (angle steel, channel steel, I-beam): steady growth in export volume
• Ordinary carbon steel hot rolled coils: restricted by anti-dumping policies and export licensing, with a year-on-year decline in exports

II. Four Core Driving Factors Behind Robust Export Growth

1. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East disrupt Iran’s supply

   As one of the world’s major steel billet exporters, Iran has imposed export restrictions and suffered shipping risks due to geopolitical tensions. Its billet export volume dropped sharply, creating a huge supply gap in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Global buyers have turned to China to make up the supply shortage.
2. Strong global price competitiveness

   China’s FOB price of steel billet is significantly lower than that of Iran, India and Southeast Asian producers. The price advantage reaches 30–90 US dollars per ton, with much higher export profit margin than domestic sales, greatly stimulating mills’ export willingness.
3. Domestic supply-demand imbalance and inventory pressure

   Domestic steel demand failed to recover as expected in peak consumption season, leading to high inventory accumulation of steel billets and finished carbon steel. Export has become the important channel to digest inventory and ease domestic market pressure.
4. Policy differentiation on export licensing

   China implements differentiated export management: strict approval and restrictions on finished carbon steel products such as hot rolled coils, while loose regulation on semi-finished products represented by steel billets. This policy dividend boosts the export volume of steel billets directly.

III. Order Status: June Orders Fully Booked, July–August Orders Already Secured

1. Steel billet export orders remain the strongest

   Major steel mills in Hebei and Jiangsu are fully loaded with June export orders and running at full production capacity. Forward orders for July and August have been partially locked, mainly long-term orders from Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
2. Carbon steel finished products (hot rolled coils & profiles)

   Export orders of hot rolled coils increased month-on-month, mainly small-batch orders for Southeast Asia and Africa. Carbon steel profiles maintain strong export performance, supported by infrastructure and Belt and Road Initiative projects.
3. Profit comparison between export and domestic sales

   The profit of steel billet export is far higher than domestic sales; hot rolled coil exports maintain stable profits, while construction steel such as rebar has low export willingness due to thin profit margins.

IV. Export Destination Distribution: 70% Flows to Southeast Asia, Middle East and Africa Grow Rapidly

1. Southeast Asia (core market, accounting for over 70%)

   Vietnam is the largest purchaser, importing massive Chinese steel billets for supporting local hot rolling production. Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries see rapid growth in carbon steel and billet imports driven by manufacturing and infrastructure recovery.
2. Middle East (alternative market to Iran)

   Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other regions have shifted their procurement reliance from Iran to China, with a sharp year-on-year surge in imports of Chinese carbon steel products and billets.
3. Africa (emerging growth market)

   Driven by infrastructure construction demand, Nigeria, Algeria and other African countries keep raising imports of Chinese carbon steel profiles and steel billets with a steady growth rate.

V. Market Impacts and Potential Risks

1. Positive Impacts

• Effectively digest domestic carbon steel and steel billet inventory, easing domestic supply-demand pressure.
• Improve steel mills’ profitability and cash flow conditions.
• Consolidate China’s position in the global carbon steel supply chain and hedge against trade barriers such as foreign anti-dumping sanctions.

2. Potential Risks

• Rising trade frictions: Europe and the US may launch new anti-dumping and countervailing investigations targeting Chinese steel billets.
• Policy tightening risk: Excessively booming billet exports may trigger stricter export regulation on primary steel products.
• Supply recovery of Iran: Once Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, Iran’s steel billet exports may resume and seize market share from China.
• Domestic demand recovery: If domestic steel demand picks up significantly, mills may shift shipment priority to domestic market and reduce export supply.