Date: January 6, 2026 Source: Global Steel Trade Monitor
From January 1 to 6, 2026, the Asian steel market has witnessed significant supply-demand restructuring driven by China’s export policy adjustment, exchange rate fluctuations in Turkey, and deepened Indonesia-Vietnam regional cooperation. These dynamics have reshaped trade flows and price trends, bringing new uncertainties and opportunities for market participants.
China’s Export Licensing Tightens Asian HRC Supply, Vietnam Shifts to Indian Resources
China’s resumption of export licensing for 300 steel tariff lines, including hot-rolled coils (HRC), on January 1 has become a core driver of market changes. The policy has extended enterprise license application cycles and increased compliance costs, leading to an estimated short-term supply contraction of over 10 million tons and a projected full-year reduction of 19 million tons.
As a major destination for Chinese HRC exports, Vietnam has been heavily impacted by prolonged customs clearance and delivery cycles. To ensure stable production and supply, Vietnamese buyers have actively turned to alternative sources, with India emerging as a key substitute. Data shows that from January 1 to 6, the CFR Vietnam quotation for Indian SS400 HRC stood at 483-485 USD/ton, with active inquiries and small-batch transactions. In contrast, Chinese wide coils were quoted lower at 478-480 USD/ton but received limited inquiries due to uncertainties in license approval and delivery schedules.
Industry insiders noted that the tightening supply has enhanced the bargaining power of Indian steel mills, forcing Vietnamese buyers to accept price premiums. Chinese exporters have adjusted their strategies, prioritizing high-end orders, requiring 100% advance payment, and shortening quotation validity to ≤ 7 days to mitigate policy and price volatility risks.
Turkish Lira Volatility Drives Rebar Price Hikes, Import Costs Rise
In the Turkish market, sharp depreciation of the lira against the US dollar in early January has pushed up import costs of iron ore, coking coal and other raw materials. To hedge exchange rate risks, local steel mills have raised rebar spot prices by 15-20 USD/ton compared with late December, and traders have followed suit to maintain profit margins.
Currently, Turkey is in the off-season for winter infrastructure construction, with weak end-user procurement willingness. Transactions are mainly small-batch restocking, and speculative demand remains sluggish. On the supply side, local steel mills have reduced production to support prices, while imported resources have decreased due to high costs, keeping market inventories at a low level. Market participants suggested that transactions with Turkish clients should adopt US dollar settlement or lock in exchange rates, with exchange rate fluctuation adjustment clauses added to contracts to avoid profit erosion.
Indonesia-Vietnam Cooperation Strengthens, Reducing Dependence on China
Against the backdrop of tight regional supply caused by China’s export policy, Indonesia and Vietnam have strengthened regional resource complementarity, further reducing reliance on Chinese raw materials and finished products. Indonesian re-rolling mills, facing insufficient local slab capacity, have increased slab purchases from Vietnam, which are used to produce HRC, cold-rolled coils and other products to fill supply gaps.
Data shows that Vietnam’s slab exports to Indonesia increased by 20% month-on-month in December, with the regional trade flow accelerating. Driven by Vietnam’s improved slab quality and obvious price advantages, Indonesian re-rolling mills have maintained controllable costs and expanded profit margins. This cooperation has formed a complementary pattern of "Vietnamese slabs + Indonesian rolling" in Southeast Asia, which may further squeeze China’s market share in the region and force Chinese exporters to transform towards high-end and differentiated products.
Market Outlook
The Asian steel market is in a critical period of supply-demand restructuring. China’s export licensing policy will continue to be a core variable, while Turkey’s exchange rate dynamics and Southeast Asia’s regional cooperation will further exacerbate price and trade flow fluctuations. Enterprises are advised to flexibly adjust price and resource layout strategies, strengthen compliance management and settlement risk control, and respond to market uncertainties.
