In Q4 2025, the global steel industry entered a critical transformation period. According to the latest data from the World Steel Association (worldsteel), global crude steel output increased by 1.2% year-on-year, but growth momentum showed significant regional differentiation.
In Q4 2025, the global steel industry entered a critical transformation period. According to the latest data from the World Steel Association (worldsteel), global crude steel output increased by 1.2% year-on-year, but growth momentum showed significant regional differentiation. Guided by the "dual carbon" goals, low-carbon metallurgy technology has entered the large-scale verification phase. Coupled with adjustments to international trade rules and the expansion of demand for high-end materials, the industry is shifting from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, forming three core mainlines: "technological iteration, supply-demand restructuring, and rule reshaping."
Anshan Iron and Steel Group's world's first 10,000-tonne-class green electricity-green hydrogen fluidized bed hydrogen metallurgy pilot line has been operating stably, becoming a benchmark for industrial decarbonization. The production line produces hydrogen through green electricity electrolysis of water from wind power units and reduces iron ore particles with hydrogen. The carbon dioxide emission per tonne of iron achieves near-zero emissions, a reduction of approximately 2 tonnes compared with traditional blast furnace ironmaking. To date, it has produced over 150 tonnes of direct reduced iron (DRI) with a metallization rate of over 95%, which can directly meet the smelting needs of high-end materials such as automotive steel and electrical steel.
The project has broken through multiple core technical bottlenecks: independently developed iron ore pelletization and modification technology to control the moisture content of raw materials within 0.1% precision; solved the problem of blockage in high-pressure transportation of iron ore particles by optimizing pressure gradient and adding fluidizing air, realizing continuous and stable operation of the entire process. Key equipment is 100% domestically produced, forming a complete set of processes with fully independent intellectual property rights, laying the foundation for subsequent 500,000-tonne-class industrial projects.
International steel enterprises are accelerating the "digital + green" dual transformation. China Baowu launched the "Smart Blast Furnace" system, optimizing burden ratio and smelting parameters through AI algorithms, reducing energy consumption per tonne of iron by 3.2%; ArcelorMittal applied digital twin technology to its hydrogen-based steelmaking workshop, realizing real-time monitoring and regulation of carbon footprint throughout the production process. China Steel Corporation (Taiwan, China)'s operation training system based on digital twins has significantly improved the promotion efficiency of low-carbon processes, shortlisted for worldsteel's "Steelie Awards."
The OECD's "2025 Steel Outlook" indicates that global new steel production capacity will reach 165 million tonnes between 2025 and 2027, with Asia accounting for 58%, and China and India as the main growth engines. However, demand performance is differentiated: affected by environmental protection production restrictions, the ex-factory price of Tangshan billets in China was reported at 2,980 yuan/tonne in October, an increase of 30 yuan/tonne month-on-month, and downstream inventories were 21% higher than the same period last year; demand in European and American markets remained sluggish, with apparent steel consumption in OECD regions decreasing by 0.8% year-on-year.
Emerging markets have become the engine of demand growth. Steel demand in ASEAN, the Middle East, and North Africa increased by 3.5% and 2.7% year-on-year respectively, driving billet export quotes in the CIS and Middle East to stabilize at 460 US dollars/tonne (CFR China) and 450 US dollars/tonne (CFR China).
Global steel trade protectionism continues to heat up. Among the 81 steel anti-dumping investigations initiated worldwide in 2024, 80% targeted Asian producers, with China accounting for more than one-third. However, the widening domestic and foreign price gap has driven the growth of China's steel exports. Billet export orders in October increased by 28% month-on-month, becoming a key channel to ease domestic inventory pressure.
Regional trade agreements have become increasingly influential. Under the RCEP framework, the tariff reduction policy for steel products has been continuously implemented, and China's steel export volume to ASEAN increased by 12.3% year-on-year; after the formal implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the premium space for low-carbon steel products in the international market has gradually expanded, forcing enterprises to accelerate decarbonization transformation.
The OECD calls for strengthening the implementation of the "Berlin Guidelines" through the Forum on Market Distortions and Excess Steel Capacity (FMSS) to curb non-market-oriented subsidies and disorderly capacity expansion. The report points out that the subsidy rate for the steel industry in non-OECD countries is ten times that of OECD countries, among which policies such as low-interest loans and energy subsidies have seriously distorted market competition.
China has continued to promote the ultra-low emission transformation of the steel industry. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a total of more than 1,100 transformation projects have been implemented, and 100% of the country's crude steel production capacity has completed the ultra-low emission transformation announcement. The EU has launched the "Green Steel Fund," providing investment subsidies of up to 30% for hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture projects to accelerate the decarbonization process of the regional steel industry.
International steel giants have adjusted their development layouts one after another: HBIS Group has built a symbiotic model of "electric arc furnace short process + urban waste heat utilization," realizing in-depth integration of steel production and urban development; POSCO has developed nickel-free high-manganese austenitic steel to seize the material market in the low-temperature energy industry; Gerdau Group has integrated corporate social responsibility into its sustainable development strategy through the "Climate Disaster Reconstruction Program."
Competition in the high-end materials sector has intensified. New products such as Hyundai Steel's 1.8GPa-grade galvanized ultra-high-strength hot-stamped materials and JFE Steel's acid-resistant low-alloy steel have been mass-applied in new energy, high-end manufacturing and other fields, promoting the upgrading of steel products from basic materials to strategic new materials.
The global steel industry will enter a deepening transformation period in 2026. On the supply side, the speed of commercial application of low-carbon technologies will determine enterprise competitiveness, and the improvement of the economy of hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture technologies will be crucial; on the demand side, new energy vehicles, wind power, high-end equipment and other fields will drive sustained growth in demand for high-end steel products.
Mysteel predicts that with the adjustment of environmental protection production restriction policies, China's billet supply will remain at a high level. The traditional off-season effect and inventory pressure may lead to price fluctuations within a range, and the performance of the export market will remain an important variable. At the international level, the restructuring of trade rules and the popularization of carbon pricing mechanisms will accelerate industry reshuffling. Enterprises with low-carbon technological advantages and high-end manufacturing capabilities will seize development opportunities.
